This chart uses quotes from “Trading View”, most of our texts use quotes from Bitfinex, which often are lower.
Another Small Sell-Off
16. January 2018 03:30 GMT – There was another flurry of sales tonight, starting about 23:45 GMT and lasting until almost 16. January 2018 02:30 this morning. It seems that some people have set a sell level at (variously) $13’000 or $13’500 or $14’000 and they drop modertely large bundles when these levels are broached and someone else starts to sell. It will be difficult to push up the BTC price level until these sources are exhausted, or conversely, become convinced that BTC is on the upward drive again. This may happen when ethereum hits a limit, although it looks like that may be happening now, and ditto with ripple.
12. January 2018 03:20 GMT – Starting about 02:45 GMT yesterday (11. Jan) there was a hard Bitcoin selloff – apparently by a single trader or group – that lasted for about an hour and a half – amounting to about 12’000 BTC net. The market result was a drop from about $14’500 to about $12’900. There was some recovery to about $13’500 during the following three-quarter hour but the market stabilised at about that level ($13’500 at 05:00 GMT) for the next 23 hours (up to this writing), plus or minus about $500. This result is a consistent loss of about $1’000, or about 8%, from Thursday to Friday.
After the major sell-off, the market was very quiet for the rest of the period up to now.
13. January 2018 01:48 GMT – The market volume stayed very quiet from then on until a single isolated 1700 BTC purchase at about 13:15 GMT. That created a small peak to about $14.0k, but not a strong reaction. After that the price remained at about $14k plus-minus $200 until now. The market volume remained very low.
More later on today.
13. January 2018 07:33 GMT – Just as I was writing the last report (13. January 2018 01:48 GMT) there was a medium-strength buy effort that brougnt the market up to about $14’100 with a narrow range of about $100 plus-minus. It stayed in this band with light trading up to this writing.
13. January 2018 23:55 GMT – The market worked itself upward roughly $100 around the middle of the day, still on light trading, and continued at that level up to midnight GMT.
14. January 2018 12:15 GMT – The market remained stable until a series of sell orders (moderate size) hit starting about 04:15 GMT. This brought the market down to about $13’700 and a further sale at about 08:00 GMT brought it down to about $13’500. It appears to be stabilising there, but it is too early to tell with any certainty.
15. January 2018 01:50 GMT – The market continued to stabilise to a certain extent, if one can use the term “stabilise” for this kind of behavior – at about $13’500-$13’600 up to the present time. There was one relatively large buy situation at about 15:30 GMT, otherwise the market was quiet.
15. January 2018 10:50 GMT – The market continued with relatively weak activity and slowly worked up about $100-$150 to $13’600 just before 11:00 GMT. There were no large movements during this time.
On another note, the USD continues weakening against the EUR and most other European currencies (for example the CHF), including the GBP.
Return to 2017?
08. January 2018 21:35 GMT – Since the previous report the BTC-USD exchange rate started a downward movement at about 13:00 (about $15’500) and dropped continuously to about $14k at almost 15:00. The traffic was fairly heavy, but continued as the rate started moving slowly upwards. At about 21:00 it had reached about $14’900, but at this point with almost no trading.
09. January 2018 01:25 GMT – Shortly after the report above there was a sharp drop in the price caused by some (a few?) sales with the price ending up at about $14.7k. After that there were a few more starts and stops, ending with things looking like they might settle out at about $15.2k by the time of this writing.
09. January 2018 12:55 GMT – The price level held at the above level for about 4 hours, but then a low-level sell-off started. The BTC-USD exchange level dropped irregularly but consistently until it reached about $14’500 on weak trade at the time of this writing. There is no indication that the fall will continue or stop at this time. According to other reports, ethereum is reaching new highs presently, but with an uncertain level in very weak trading. BTC futures are off some, reflecting this morning’s BTC fall under $15k.
10. January 2018 12:55 GMT – BTC is under attack again. The theory is that BTC-holders are selling BTC to buy ethereum (ETH), which is experiencing a record high flight.
“TradingView.com” has an interesting theory that involves a cycle that repeats on an annual basis. The steps in the cycle (basis market cap) are
1- NEW MONEY GOES TO BTC
2- BTC BUBBLE POPS
3- MONEY GOES TO ALTS
4- XRP BUBBLE POPS
5- MONEY GOES TO ETH
6- ETH BUBBLE POPS
7- DEEP CORRECTION
8- BTC ETH MOVE HIGHER WHILE MOST ALTS STAY IN CORRECTION.
9- BTC DOMINANCE GOES TO OVER 50% AGAIN
10 – RINSE AND REPEAT
adapted from https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHBTC/o9Xcmvp3-BTC-MARKET-DOMINANCE-HISTORIC-LOW/
If this holds true again, then we will have to wait until mid-spring or so until BTC starts to make solid positive moves again. Patience is a virtue!
Now This Is Something New!?
06. January 2018 03:30 GMT – Since the jump caused by the purchasing surge at about 08:30 GMT yesterday morning, the BTC market has risen more or less steadily from $15’800 where it started to about $16’800 at the present time. If you go back to before the sell-off that ended at the end of last year, that is roughly the rate the BTC-USD exchange was rising at, about $1’000 per day.
The $16’000 Question is, will it continue on or not? My prediction from before the EOY sell-off occurred was that the rate would drop – maybe as far down as to $10’500, and after the EOY would start to rise again at roughly the same rate as it had been before the sell-off started. It will be interesting to see what really happens now, but I personally don’t think there will be any large surprises – some bumps, undoubtedly, but no big swings either up (faster) or down (again).
06. January 2018 13:22 GMT – Since the previous report, the rate has more-or-less steadied out at about $16’500. However, the typical thing to happen is that any changes will start just after I write this (Murphy’s Law in action!), so stay tuned!
Same Song, Second Verse
07. January 2018 01:05 GMT – Today seemed to be a repeat of yesterday to a certain extent. After moving along essentially unchanged all morning, and starting at a low point (about $16’300) at about 13:45 GMT, the BTC price moved up to about $17k over about 12 hours. The main difference from yesterday was that the trading today was very weak, with the exception of two relatively strong parcels – one sell, one buy – at about 21:00 GMT. These seemed to hved no major effect on the market’s movement. Will it continue? Only time will tell, but the futures are strong compared to the past few days – in theory that should be a positive sign.
07. January 2018 02:45 GMT – After peaking out at a little over $17k at about 17:00 GMT the trend stared the opposite direction and kept going up to this writing, when it is at about $16k. There are a few spikes here and there, but the market movement seems to be general, rather than initiated by any specific transactions. I guess we will see more in the morning!
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05. January 2018 00:58 GMT – Things seemed to be rocking along at about the same level as the last two days until 08:30 GMT yesterday (04. Jan) when a large parcel (1885 BTC) was forced into the market to sell. This dropped the market by about $500. The trading on the market aside from this one big one was riding along at a maximum of about 500 BTC, and this continued throughout the rest of the day. The consequence was that by end of day the market had worked back up to just under $15’000 – about $300 above where the sale was pushed.
What will happen later today and then over the weekend? I have to say that the BTC Futures do not look very strong, but that could be the long-term situation – slow steady gain. That would be a pleasant situation for many folks, I expect.
05. January 2018 12:28 GMT – At about 08:30 – 09:30 GMT this morning, there was a flurry of buying action, and this bumped the BTC price up about $1’000 from $15’000 to $16’000. It stabilised there for at least 3 hours (up to now). Is this the beginning of something interesting? Or just a fluke? Only time and Bitfinex will tell, I guess!
01. January 2018 16:58 GMT – First and foremost,
Ok, that’s taken care of. Now we just need to get BTC started off for a strong 2018. Looking at the results so far today, it is definitely not going in that direction. Actually, it doesn’t seem to be going in any direction except sideways with a few wiggles here and there.
I’m not really worried about Bitcoin, but the alt-coin called “Verve” has apparently come to a grinding halt. I didn’t have any and I don’t have any particular knowledge – I’m just going on what I’ve been reading in FB, and that is about 95% not good. One more reason to stick with the leaders in the crypto-currencies. If you are not aware of this, Bitcoin is THE leader here – the first and the strongest in terms of market cap and holders by far. I think ethereum may be number two, but it is far behind Bitcoin and not such a clear situation.
It will be interesting to see where the market goes in January. Right now, the Bitcoin Futures are at about $14’500, which does not suggest any strong movements in the near future, but the futures market – despite its name – tends to be a follower of current prices.
More of the same – again
02. January 2018 02:35 GMT – Well, it has been about 12 hours, and still nothing “unusual” is going on. No major moves up or down, just lots of sideways. Some of the parcels seem to be getting larger, but that’s up AND down, so who knows where we go next?
The one other thing that is significant outside the crypto-currency area is that the USD is continuing to weaken against most of the other world currencies. This is reportedly due to the new tax changes coming into effect today, some companies who have stockpiled some large tax losses will not be able to use them, although their overall taxes will be lower. To date the dollar has lost a little over 2% for the pairs I tend to watch – USD/EUR and USD/CHF. I hope that reverses itself soon and the BTC rate starts in the right direction. Who knows if that will happen? Well, it sure is not me! My crystal ball is full of fog, like it is outdoors here tonight. Here’s hoping for the best, although that is not always the same thing for everybody.
04. January 2018 00:25 GMT – The entire day (3 Jan) remained in about the same situation as before. In the evening of 3. January the amount of traffic was almost nil. In this condition, the exchange rate was between $14’700 and $15’200, which is quite narrow for Bitcoin in the past weeks.
Wrap Up For Now
That’s all I have for now – needless to say, I think CryptoGold (get there via www.krypto-gold.ch = CryptoGold Switzerland) is one of if not the most positive way to go – combine wholly-owned and completely paid independent Bitcoin mining with alt-coin mining and no-cost trading inside the system, plus the advantages of MLM in growing your income and eventual Gold-backing for the alt-coins and external trading and you have a definite winner.
P.S. I made some format changes for the New Year – I hope these make it easier to read the content and see what is going on.
Now a Step Down
30. December 2017 11:13 GMT – After all the non-excitement there was a little more early this morning (GMT) as four large parcels were sold. This dropped the price by about $1’500 on average from $14.5k to $13k. I don’t know if there are any buyers out there at this point who are waiting for lower prices, but I expect we will see more of this before the end of the year. A price around $10’500 on New Years Eve would not surprise me. But at the same time, I would not be surprised by a strong rally starting New Years Day and continuing more-or-less for 2-3 weeks.
… And a Little Bit Down and a Little Bit Up
31. December 2017 00:17 GMT – there has been some more movement since midday but indecisive. The eyeball average is about $12’300 to $12’400. Typically what happens is that any big move comes right after I write a post, so let’s see what happens tonight?
How to avoid all this excitement (and risk)? My recommendation is to buy into CryptoGold. With mining in place and not subject to variations in fixed costs, this will put you in the easy chair (or maybe the beach lounger?), watching your benefits grow.
26. December 2017 15:11 GMT – In a surprising move, Bitcoin made a step up from the $13’500 level where it had stabilised (more or less) to around $15’000 at about 05:00 GMT this morning. It also remained at about tht level until just recently.
Will it hold? No way to know that until it happens, but BTC is increasing again as I write this (about 15:00 GMT). It is taking the futures with it.
27. December 2017 14:00 GMT – There have been a few larger movements up and down in the past 23 hours, but the market is remaining essentially stable (for now). It will be interesting to see if anything unusual happens before (and after) the end of the year.
28. December 2017 15:20 GMT – The more-or-less average exchange rate slid down about $1000 overnight. Mostly caused by some large parcel sells, and the visual average (the eyeball average on a non-logarithmic scale) is now running about $14k or maybe a few hundred lower.
30. December 2017 01:15 GMT – Basically more of the same in the past 12 hours or so There was an upbeat yesterday (29. December) morning – a step up early in the morning and then a similar step down later in the morning. Nothing exciting unless you get excited easily these days.
One interesting thing I have noted is that the large movements in the past few days seem almost (yes there are a few exceptions) always to be sellers. Does anybody have a reason for that? Anyway, see you later today, depending on what happens.
Oh! What are the bets for a strong surge after midnight on the 31st? I think they may be pretty good odds if someone is a betting sort.
24. December 2017 13:31 GMT – It appears that the BTC market has been rising on almost no volume and falling on relatively substantial selling. The result is that the bandwidth is now stretched between $15k on the high side and $12k on the low side. What that results in is that there were very few transactions yesterday (23. December) going up, and a fair amount of transactions today, mostly sells (at least up to now) going down. It is interesting to watch if you are not in a position where you have to do something.
It also is interesting that the news finally discovered the BTC sell-off. The various news services are touting the “largest fall since XXX” but they are out of date and the price is already rising by the time they publish. “Anything to sell newspapers”, I guess.
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25 December 2017 14:07 GMT – More of the same, except that the traffic last night was not as heavy as before. The mid-point right now seems to be about $13’500, but that could change quickly. Merry Christmas for those who celebrate it?
22. December 2017 15:38 GMT – In an apparent effort to drive the smaller margin traders out of the market, the “big boys” in another move in their power play have forced yet another decline on the BTC price. It started at about midnight Thursday night GMT and was still continuing at this writing. The objective here for them is to drive the BTC price down as far as possible and buy at that price. Then they will wait for the price to rise again – whether that will be before the end of this year or early next year is open to speculation (ain’t it all??). At that point will they sell for the protfit or hold? Don’t know, maybe some of each. The latest moves started at about 13:15 GMT and took BTC well below $11k for a short time. The volume traded has been strong during this whole period. Maybe that signals an end to this coming soon?
We will see.
23. December 2017 10:40 GMT – Since the previous report above, activity in BTC-USD has almost completely disappeared. As one result, the BTC price has more-or-less stabilised between $13k and $14k. Consequently there is almost nothing to report.