This is a post taken from Jameys.casa that was published this morning. I think it is interesting and maybe you will too?
Patience Is A Virtue – Part 2
Bitcoin Needs Patience, It Seems
There is another slow-down coming down the road, it seems. There is supposed to be another hard fork on the BTC system in this coming November. Are you ready?
What we expect to see from this hard fork is roughly equal to what we saw last time (prior to and after 1 August). Lots of uncertainty in the BTC price in the run-up to the fork date, and then relief that “nothing happened” afterwards. The only problem with this is that the wait during the run-up will be knocking holes in the appreciation of the BTC during the entire month of October. Well, that’s a little exaggerated – it will be causing a lot of stagnation in the BTC-USD exchange rate, whereas we had all hoped for at least some some increase.
What’s the “Patience” about? Well, last time, the rate lost about 20% ($500) for the 6 weeks before the potential hard fork and then gained about 125% ($2400) in the following peak run. Patience pays! In this case about 5:1 . Those people who sold out before the hard fork lost a lot of potential profits!
What I’m wondering is if this is going to continue with a proposed hard fork every 2-4 months for the next few years? That could cause more damage than any of us had bargained for, including the miners. Is there a way to stop this nonsense?
Please reply using the comment form below the post. We would like to hear what you think.
Since the big hoo-hah last week, the BTC-USD market has taken the hit and recovered to something around $4000. This is almost a complete recovery to the sell-off after the peak of a little over $4900 on 2 September. It now seems that all forms of trading in BTC along with all other virtual coins soon will be banned in China. The Chinese appear to be attempting to stop all trading they cannot control, even peer-to-peer and OTC exchanges. They also appear to be attempting to stop Chinese trading outside the country, so that should make it a total blockage on virtual currencies within China as well as into and out of the country.
As we expected last week, the crackdown did not have a lasting effect on the BTC-USD market. I suspect that the bulk of the large chinese BTC traders managed to get their control outside the country (if it was not already there) before the authorities could block their activities. The rest of the small dealers in China may have taken it on the chin, but the market does not make any allowance for that and the authorities don’t care.
Hard Fork Next Version
Now, there is another hoo-hah brewing about yet another hard fork that should occur in November. This will be to try to separate Segwit2x from BTC. I see this as a probable repetition of what happened in August. In essence, another attempt by outsiders to get something for nothing. I expect that the market reaction will be about the same. There is a lot of inertia in the market there that will keep the market stable over such attempted disturbances. The longer the BTC market remains active and the amount of BTC in trade continues to grow, the more difficult it will be for someone to disturb the market. There are many holders out there who do not want to rock the boat, and more importantly, endanger their USD profits.
Well, there is a big panic about the Chinese stopping trading in new coin releases that has spilled over into the Bitcoin market. At this point, the BTC-USD market has fallen almost 13% since it hit the all-time high of over $4900 on September 2 – so less than two weeks ago.
I am not surprised about this – the Chinese are looking for ways to make money any way possible, and taking control of the Bitcoin market – assuming they are able to – is one way to do this. The other side of the coin is that the market rose about 150% (based on the starting point of about $1900 in mid-July this year) in roughly six weeks prior to the peak.
I feel certain that there will be some more downward pressure on the exchange rate, but I also think that there will be a strengthening upward force for a number of reasons:
The Chinese do not control the BTC market. They might be able to so if they coordinated their operations, but I do not think they are capable of that, there are too many independent investors involved.
The Chinese individuals who are in the BTC market will move their holdings outside China and continue their trading.
There is a large number of people who who will continue to invest in BTC in spite of what the Chinese want us to do.
The pressure that the Chinese are putting on the smaller alternative coins will tend to drive people to the “safer” BTC market.
The pressure that the Chinese are putting on new coin ICOs will also work to BTC’s advantage.
I think that part of the logic behind the Chinese move is that their cost of electricity is increasing as their cost of imported fuels increase, and this tends to put them at a cost disadvantage against other competitors.
And last, but not least, the Chinese will try to push their own coming coins at the expense of other coins, most particularly Bitcoin.