Bitcoin Fortune Builder Newsletter – 2017.10.21

BTC Not-So-Slow Gain

bitcoinfortunebuilder-com-houseownbtcsymbolnewcolour-100x100There was a small “price explosion” in the BTC-USD exchange rates yesterday (Friday, 20 October) and today. I have not seen any particular reason for this; I would write it up to pent-up frustration after a week or so of relative inactivity. At this writing, BTC is sitting at about $6’080 per BTC but who knows whether it will advance or decline or just stay there?

Hard Forks Again

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hard forks maybe
There are two more theoretical hard forks planned for the near future now. One is the Segwit2x that we talked about last week Bitcoin-Fortune-Buider Newsletter-2017-10-08 that is now a little more firmly settled for 18 November.

The other is “Bitcoin Gold” that I honestly thought had disappeared after the August hard fork, but apparently is still around. It is now scheduled for next week (25 October).

To be frank about the whole situation, I am getting bored with these things. I expect very little market movement as a result of either fork. Next week we will see if I am right or not.

Cheers!

Craig
for Bitcoin Fortune Builder

Bitcoin Fortune Builder Newsletter – 2017.10.08

Hello again,

BTC Slow Gain

bitcoinfortunebuilder-com-houseownbtcsymbolnewcolour-100x100Since our last post (late September) we have been watching the exchange rate USD/BTC. It has been fairly boring, I have to say, but the price has slowly worked its way up from about $3660 to about $4560 as I am writing this. That is about $900 (not quite 25%) in 13 calendar days. Actually, NOT SHABBY! Imagine if the NYSE made a gain like that – Wall Street would be going bananas!

Why is BTC growth so constrained? Well, as I explained in the last post, I think the villian is the Segwit2x Hard Fork Next Version (HFNV). Just extapolating essentially in a straight line, if the HFNV takes place at the 10th of November, that gives us from now until then, which is about 40 calendar days from now. If you extrapolate the 25% in 13 days to 40 days, we are looking at 40/13 times 25%. This works out to almost 75%, based on $3660, so about $2800 increase which would put us at almost $6500 by mid-November. If you use the same logic (which I agree is not logical), we are about $500 short of $10’000 at the end of the year!

My expectations are that

  1. from now to mid-November The growth rate will be at the same rate as from 25 September to today, about $70 increase per day.
  2. for 3-5 days after the HFNV, lots of movement, but no net movement
  3. from 21 November to end of year, significant expansion equal to that after 3 August and averaging about $120/day

Where does that put us?

  • from 25 September to 15 November = 76 days at $70/day = from $3660 to $8980
  • from 15-20 November – no change, so still say $9000
  • from 21 November to 31 December = 40 days at $120/day = 9000 + 4800 = $13’800

Does that sound reasonable? I don’t really think so, so lets arbitrarily take 25% off the days of growth in the two long spans. Then we will have

  • 25 September – 15 November = 76 days less 25% = 57 days at $70/day = about $4000 plus the starting point of $3660 = about $7650
  • 15-20 November – no change so still $7650
  • 21 November – 31 December = 40 days less 25% = 30 days at $120/day = $3600 plus $7650 = $11’250 on 1 Jan 2018.

That is the equivalent of $60 per day for the complete period, and that is about 1.7% per day, based on the price at 25 September. It is a substantial increase over the period, but my feeling is that it is reasonable.

What Do You Think???