BTC Slow Gain
Since our last post (late September) we have been watching the exchange rate USD/BTC. It has been fairly boring, I have to say, but the price has slowly worked its way up from about $3660 to about $4560 as I am writing this. That is about $900 (not quite 25%) in 13 calendar days. Actually, NOT SHABBY! Imagine if the NYSE made a gain like that – Wall Street would be going bananas!
Why is BTC growth so constrained? Well, as I explained in the last post, I think the villian is the Segwit2x Hard Fork Next Version (HFNV). Just extapolating essentially in a straight line, if the HFNV takes place at the 10th of November, that gives us from now until then, which is about 40 calendar days from now. If you extrapolate the 25% in 13 days to 40 days, we are looking at 40/13 times 25%. This works out to almost 75%, based on $3660, so about $2800 increase which would put us at almost $6500 by mid-November. If you use the same logic (which I agree is not logical), we are about $500 short of $10’000 at the end of the year!
My expectations are that
- from now to mid-November The growth rate will be at the same rate as from 25 September to today, about $70 increase per day.
- for 3-5 days after the HFNV, lots of movement, but no net movement
- from 21 November to end of year, significant expansion equal to that after 3 August and averaging about $120/day
Where does that put us?
- from 25 September to 15 November = 76 days at $70/day = from $3660 to $8980
- from 15-20 November – no change, so still say $9000
- from 21 November to 31 December = 40 days at $120/day = 9000 + 4800 = $13’800
Does that sound reasonable? I don’t really think so, so lets arbitrarily take 25% off the days of growth in the two long spans. Then we will have
- 25 September – 15 November = 76 days less 25% = 57 days at $70/day = about $4000 plus the starting point of $3660 = about $7650
- 15-20 November – no change so still $7650
- 21 November – 31 December = 40 days less 25% = 30 days at $120/day = $3600 plus $7650 = $11’250 on 1 Jan 2018.
That is the equivalent of $60 per day for the complete period, and that is about 1.7% per day, based on the price at 25 September. It is a substantial increase over the period, but my feeling is that it is reasonable.
What Do You Think???