Bitcoin Fortune Builder Newsletter – 2017.10.08

Hello again,

BTC Slow Gain

bitcoinfortunebuilder-com-houseownbtcsymbolnewcolour-100x100Since our last post (late September) we have been watching the exchange rate USD/BTC. It has been fairly boring, I have to say, but the price has slowly worked its way up from about $3660 to about $4560 as I am writing this. That is about $900 (not quite 25%) in 13 calendar days. Actually, NOT SHABBY! Imagine if the NYSE made a gain like that – Wall Street would be going bananas!

Why is BTC growth so constrained? Well, as I explained in the last post, I think the villian is the Segwit2x Hard Fork Next Version (HFNV). Just extapolating essentially in a straight line, if the HFNV takes place at the 10th of November, that gives us from now until then, which is about 40 calendar days from now. If you extrapolate the 25% in 13 days to 40 days, we are looking at 40/13 times 25%. This works out to almost 75%, based on $3660, so about $2800 increase which would put us at almost $6500 by mid-November. If you use the same logic (which I agree is not logical), we are about $500 short of $10’000 at the end of the year!

My expectations are that

  1. from now to mid-November The growth rate will be at the same rate as from 25 September to today, about $70 increase per day.
  2. for 3-5 days after the HFNV, lots of movement, but no net movement
  3. from 21 November to end of year, significant expansion equal to that after 3 August and averaging about $120/day

Where does that put us?

  • from 25 September to 15 November = 76 days at $70/day = from $3660 to $8980
  • from 15-20 November – no change, so still say $9000
  • from 21 November to 31 December = 40 days at $120/day = 9000 + 4800 = $13’800

Does that sound reasonable? I don’t really think so, so lets arbitrarily take 25% off the days of growth in the two long spans. Then we will have

  • 25 September – 15 November = 76 days less 25% = 57 days at $70/day = about $4000 plus the starting point of $3660 = about $7650
  • 15-20 November – no change so still $7650
  • 21 November – 31 December = 40 days less 25% = 30 days at $120/day = $3600 plus $7650 = $11’250 on 1 Jan 2018.

That is the equivalent of $60 per day for the complete period, and that is about 1.7% per day, based on the price at 25 September. It is a substantial increase over the period, but my feeling is that it is reasonable.

What Do You Think???

2 thoughts on “Bitcoin Fortune Builder Newsletter – 2017.10.08”

  1. I wanted to make one comment before it becomes totally irrelevant: I find it unusual how little the Chinese being forced to pull out of the market actually hurt the market position. I think the hard fork in August had more impact. But I expect the large Chinese BTC holders never had their BTC in China. That means they are still in the market, but not under their government regulations. China is being globalized, whether the government likes it or not.

  2. Today (12 October 2017), Bitcoin blew the lid off the so-called $5’000-barrier. The market has not closed for the day yet, but at about 22:00 GMT, the market reporter (the one you see at the top of this page) had reached $5’298.65, more than $500 over the close yesterday. Will it stay there? My guess is that as soon as it stops growing, the profit-takers will jump in and knock the rate down (temporarily = maybe 2-5 days) to under $5’000. But I also believe BTC will go back up there again, so don’t sell anything yet!

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