29.Nov.2017 03:10 GMT: Hello there – you can guess from the title that Bitcoin broke the $10’000 mark tonight. It was at 02:18 GMT. Time to break out the bubbly?
Actually, aside from that there is not much more to report – catch you later!
29.Nov.2017 14:23 GMT: Hello again! There seems to be a significant pent-up desire for BTC to advance strongly. A little before 14:00 BTC cracked the $11’000 mark on Bitfinex and toppped out at $11’415
29.Nov.2017 20:36 GMT: Profit-takers and others have driven the prce down below $10’000 and it appears to have bottomed out at roughly $9’000 (19:43 GMT). Since then, it has been working back up and is at about $150 below the $10’000 mark. It appears at the present that that, even with some hefty selling pressure, the currency will find its way back over $10’000 in the night.
I guess you also have been watching the market to see what happens to the Bitcoin-USD rate. Let’s just review what has happened the past two days so that we are all on the same basis:
After the record peak early on the 15th (time is Zulu or UTC or Greenwich Mean Time) at 4400 plus a little bit, the profit takers started again, but not strongly.
The price wandered around between 4000 and 4150 for most of the time after the sell-off bottomed out just below 3900 about an hour after noon.
At about 3pm today (the 16th) it shot up to about 4250-4350 where it has remained up to this writing (9pm or 21:00 if you prefer) with very small movements up and down. Is a new record in the offing?
The question, as always, is “what’s going to happen now?” I wish I could tell you, but anything I say would be a guess, and maybe not even an educated guess.
What I can tell you, and this is nothing new if you have been reading up on Bitcoin, is that I think the chances are good that the exchange rate (or purchase price if you prefer) will continue to rise in a reasonable but irrational fashion for the coming 2-5 years AT LEAST.
My advice is to put as much money into Bitcoin as you can afford, without having to call that money back out in case of some emergency. The reason for the caution is that it is always possible that something like the Hard Fork just now or the legal problems back in the 2014-2015 span can occur. If you absolutely have to convert your BTC back to hard currency, Murphy says it will be at the worst possible time. [ You know my friend Murphy don’t you? He is the guy who made the law (Murphy’s law) that says “If anything can go wrong, it will.” And don’t forget the corollary: “If something can’t go wrong, it will anyway.” My interpretations – a good reference for Murphy is http://murphyslaws.net/ – if the link works! ]
One of the things I want to caution you about is the following. I strongly believe you cannot apply typical technical indicators to Bitcoin, because the workings are not in a free market where the production volume is not constrained, etc., because that is NOT true. Furthermore, the only way you can find an acceptable technical prediction model is with experience, and there is too little experience available in Bitcoin to validate any prediction model.
On that happy note, I will leave you for today. Assuming no upsets, I will try to publish this Newsletter on a weekly basis, generally on late Wednesday evening, European time. Set your calendar, maybe you will get some interesting news here first?
After all the flurry of worries and concerns and suppositions about what would happen with the Hard Fork, it appears that things are returning to normal, or at least what passes for “normal”, in the Bitcoin market. Among other things, the market broke through the record $3000 mark.
Actually, I have the impression that the market is starting to unleash a month’s worth of pent-up buying pressure (frustration?) caused by the indecision coming from the Hard Fork concerns. Evidence: the BTC-USD rate has pushed through the 3000 mark and continues to increase from there (see chart below).
Again, please remember that the chart uses OANDA reported information that is one day delayed. The last day’s data here is for 7 August 2017 according to OANDA’s reporting ($3229), but is actually for consensus values of 6 August 2017. At the time of writing this report (approximately 11:30 GMT on 07 Aug 2017), the current exchange rate reported by CoinDesk (https://www.coindesk.com/price/) is about $3264. OANDA does not report current prices for Bitcoin.