Commentary – Bitcoin Bubble?

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+800 % – This Bubble Ain’t Burst Yet!
End of the Bitcoin Bubble? Some commentators are writing that the present market fall is the “bursting of the Bitcoin bubble.” I have to disagree with such opinions. First of all, I don’t believe that Bitcoin is in a bubble. But the main cause for my disagreement is that – even at today’s price, BTC still shows a positive yearly income just under 800%. That’s a burst bubble? Not in my book! For me, even to define a “bubble burst”, the one-year return must be at least negative.

What do you think?


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16. January 2018 03:30 GMT+

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Another Small Sell-Off

16. January 2018 03:30 GMT – There was another flurry of sales tonight, starting about 23:45 GMT and lasting until almost 16. January 2018 02:30 this morning. It seems that some people have set a sell level at (variously) $13’000 or $13’500 or $14’000 and they drop modertely large bundles when these levels are broached and someone else starts to sell. It will be difficult to push up the BTC price level until these sources are exhausted, or conversely, become convinced that BTC is on the upward drive again. This may happen when ethereum hits a limit, although it looks like that may be happening now, and ditto with ripple.

Yet Another Sell-Off – This One Not So Small

16. January 2018 12:50 GMT – There was yet another sell-off this morning GMT, starting with a mild one early in the morning from about midnight to 05:00 GMT. Following this was a much stronger effort, including four large sales efforts starting at about 07:45 GMT and still continuing, albeit with not so large sales packets lately. At the moment, the price level is holding at about $11’700, but this is certainly not guaranteed to hold into the afternoon.

The price fall to date is about $2000 since early yesterday evening – this amounts to a loss of about 15%. Ethereum also suffered a little more than 15% and ripple more than 25%. BTC futures dropped about 14% in the same timespan.

And Still A Third For Today

16. January 2018 19:10 GMT – There was another attack on Bitcoin starting about 16:00 GMT today. This one was not as heavily financed as the earlier one, but still accounted for a 7% fall from about $11’800 to 11’000 by about 18:00 GMT.

The news services are reportng that the cause of the hausse is fear amongst investors that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be outlawed by various governments around the world. That would make sense if it were true, but it is difficult to see how that can come to pass on a world-wide basis, particularly when some governments are supporting the use of cryptocurrencies.

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