12. January 2018 03:20 GMT+


8% Sell-Off

12. January 2018 03:20 GMT – Starting about 02:45 GMT yesterday (11. Jan) there was a hard Bitcoin selloff – apparently by a single trader or group – that lasted for about an hour and a half – amounting to about 12’000 BTC net. The market result was a drop from about $14’500 to about $12’900. There was some recovery to about $13’500 during the following three-quarter hour but the market stabilised at about that level ($13’500 at 05:00 GMT) for the next 23 hours (up to this writing), plus or minus about $500. This result is a consistent loss of about $1’000, or about 8%, from Thursday to Friday.

After the major sell-off, the market was very quiet for the rest of the period up to now.

13. January 2018 01:48 GMT – The market volume stayed very quiet from then on until a single isolated 1700 BTC purchase at about 13:15 GMT. That created a small peak to about $14.0k, but not a strong reaction. After that the price remained at about $14k plus-minus $200 until now. The market volume remained very low.

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More later on today.

13. January 2018 07:33 GMT – Just as I was writing the last report (13. January 2018 01:48 GMT) there was a medium-strength buy effort that brougnt the market up to about $14’100 with a narrow range of about $100 plus-minus. It stayed in this band with light trading up to this writing.

13. January 2018 23:55 GMT – The market worked itself upward roughly $100 around the middle of the day, still on light trading, and continued at that level up to midnight GMT.

14. January 2018 12:15 GMT – The market remained stable until a series of sell orders (moderate size) hit starting about 04:15 GMT. This brought the market down to about $13’700 and a further sale at about 08:00 GMT brought it down to about $13’500. It appears to be stabilising there, but it is too early to tell with any certainty.

15. January 2018 01:50 GMT – The market continued to stabilise to a certain extent, if one can use the term “stabilise” for this kind of behavior – at about $13’500-$13’600 up to the present time. There was one relatively large buy situation at about 15:30 GMT, otherwise the market was quiet.

15. January 2018 10:50 GMT – The market continued with relatively weak activity and slowly worked up about $100-$150 to $13’600 just before 11:00 GMT. There were no large movements during this time.

On another note, the USD continues weakening against the EUR and most other European currencies (for example the CHF), including the GBP.


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Bitcoin Takes A Step Up

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26. December 2017 15:11 GMT – In a surprising move, Bitcoin made a step up from the $13’500 level where it had stabilised (more or less) to around $15’000 at about 05:00 GMT this morning. It also remained at about tht level until just recently.

Will it hold? No way to know that until it happens, but BTC is increasing again as I write this (about 15:00 GMT). It is taking the futures with it.

27. December 2017 14:00 GMT – There have been a few larger movements up and down in the past 23 hours, but the market is remaining essentially stable (for now). It will be interesting to see if anything unusual happens before (and after) the end of the year.

28. December 2017 15:20 GMT – The more-or-less average exchange rate slid down about $1000 overnight. Mostly caused by some large parcel sells, and the visual average (the eyeball average on a non-logarithmic scale) is now running about $14k or maybe a few hundred lower.

30. December 2017 01:15 GMT – Basically more of the same in the past 12 hours or so There was an upbeat yesterday (29. December) morning – a step up early in the morning and then a similar step down later in the morning. Nothing exciting unless you get excited easily these days.

One interesting thing I have noted is that the large movements in the past few days seem almost (yes there are a few exceptions) always to be sellers. Does anybody have a reason for that? Anyway, see you later today, depending on what happens.

Oh! What are the bets for a strong surge after midnight on the 31st? I think they may be pretty good odds if someone is a betting sort.

Year-End Sell-Off Started?

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20. December 2017 03:43 GMT – It appears that the sell-offs that I predicted for end-of-year have started a little early. The BTC price started falling about 09:30 GMT Tuesday morning, and is continuing to at least 01:00 GMT this morning. There is a small rally going on since then, but there is no indication that it will hold. Most of this sell-off was with relatively large quantities of exchanges, as well.
Where do we go from here? My only advice is to position yourself where you want to be. Then sit back and watch it all happen.

20. December 2017 12:33 GMT – Since the above report, the trading volume has almost disapppeared. What little trading was active has pushed the price back up into the $17’300/17’400 range. For me as an untrained trader, it is somewhere between “difficult” and “impossible” to predict where it will go from here in the short term. There may be an exception for the technical traders, and a larger trader could probably play the market to set his own prices, at least in the short term.

21. December 2017 20:44 GMT – Since my last write up, there has been another sell-off spurt and BTC is now down around the $15’000 to $15’400 range. Maybe somebody needed to buy a Christmas present? Will it stay down there? Or go back up? Or go even farther down? Beats me, my crystal ball is all fogged up! Stay tuned and we will see.

22. December 2017 03:04 GMT – Since the earlier report, there has been some hard selling again, and the price at this point is down to just above $14’000. Come on guys, take it easy – then maybe you can still sell but get a better price. What do ya think?

03:13 GMT – While I was setting this post, the price dropped again to around $13’500. Great!

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