05. January 2018 00:58 GMT – Things seemed to be rocking along at about the same level as the last two days until 08:30 GMT yesterday (04. Jan) when a large parcel (1885 BTC) was forced into the market to sell. This dropped the market by about $500. The trading on the market aside from this one big one was riding along at a maximum of about 500 BTC, and this continued throughout the rest of the day. The consequence was that by end of day the market had worked back up to just under $15’000 – about $300 above where the sale was pushed.
What will happen later today and then over the weekend? I have to say that the BTC Futures do not look very strong, but that could be the long-term situation – slow steady gain. That would be a pleasant situation for many folks, I expect.
05. January 2018 12:28 GMT – At about 08:30 – 09:30 GMT this morning, there was a flurry of buying action, and this bumped the BTC price up about $1’000 from $15’000 to $16’000. It stabilised there for at least 3 hours (up to now). Is this the beginning of something interesting? Or just a fluke? Only time and Bitfinex will tell, I guess!
26. December 2017 15:11 GMT – In a surprising move, Bitcoin made a step up from the $13’500 level where it had stabilised (more or less) to around $15’000 at about 05:00 GMT this morning. It also remained at about tht level until just recently.
Will it hold? No way to know that until it happens, but BTC is increasing again as I write this (about 15:00 GMT). It is taking the futures with it.
27. December 2017 14:00 GMT – There have been a few larger movements up and down in the past 23 hours, but the market is remaining essentially stable (for now). It will be interesting to see if anything unusual happens before (and after) the end of the year.
28. December 2017 15:20 GMT – The more-or-less average exchange rate slid down about $1000 overnight. Mostly caused by some large parcel sells, and the visual average (the eyeball average on a non-logarithmic scale) is now running about $14k or maybe a few hundred lower.
30. December 2017 01:15 GMT – Basically more of the same in the past 12 hours or so There was an upbeat yesterday (29. December) morning – a step up early in the morning and then a similar step down later in the morning. Nothing exciting unless you get excited easily these days.
One interesting thing I have noted is that the large movements in the past few days seem almost (yes there are a few exceptions) always to be sellers. Does anybody have a reason for that? Anyway, see you later today, depending on what happens.
Oh! What are the bets for a strong surge after midnight on the 31st? I think they may be pretty good odds if someone is a betting sort.
22. December 2017 15:38 GMT – In an apparent effort to drive the smaller margin traders out of the market, the “big boys” in another move in their power play have forced yet another decline on the BTC price. It started at about midnight Thursday night GMT and was still continuing at this writing. The objective here for them is to drive the BTC price down as far as possible and buy at that price. Then they will wait for the price to rise again – whether that will be before the end of this year or early next year is open to speculation (ain’t it all??). At that point will they sell for the protfit or hold? Don’t know, maybe some of each. The latest moves started at about 13:15 GMT and took BTC well below $11k for a short time. The volume traded has been strong during this whole period. Maybe that signals an end to this coming soon?
We will see.
23. December 2017 10:40 GMT – Since the previous report above, activity in BTC-USD has almost completely disappeared. As one result, the BTC price has more-or-less stabilised between $13k and $14k. Consequently there is almost nothing to report.
20. December 2017 03:43 GMT – It appears that the sell-offs that I predicted for end-of-year have started a little early. The BTC price started falling about 09:30 GMT Tuesday morning, and is continuing to at least 01:00 GMT this morning. There is a small rally going on since then, but there is no indication that it will hold. Most of this sell-off was with relatively large quantities of exchanges, as well.
Where do we go from here? My only advice is to position yourself where you want to be. Then sit back and watch it all happen.
20. December 2017 12:33 GMT – Since the above report, the trading volume has almost disapppeared. What little trading was active has pushed the price back up into the $17’300/17’400 range. For me as an untrained trader, it is somewhere between “difficult” and “impossible” to predict where it will go from here in the short term. There may be an exception for the technical traders, and a larger trader could probably play the market to set his own prices, at least in the short term.
21. December 2017 20:44 GMT – Since my last write up, there has been another sell-off spurt and BTC is now down around the $15’000 to $15’400 range. Maybe somebody needed to buy a Christmas present? Will it stay down there? Or go back up? Or go even farther down? Beats me, my crystal ball is all fogged up! Stay tuned and we will see.
22. December 2017 03:04 GMT – Since the earlier report, there has been some hard selling again, and the price at this point is down to just above $14’000. Come on guys, take it easy – then maybe you can still sell but get a better price. What do ya think?
03:13 GMT – While I was setting this post, the price dropped again to around $13’500. Great!
17. December 2017 09:53 GMT – Starting about 15:00 GMT yesterday, the buy-sell activity in the BTC-USD exchange rate increased markedly. This contributed some stabiity to the price, and this reinforced the earlier increase above $18k. The price increased to above $19k at about 19:15 GMT and stabilised at about $19’300 since about 03:00 GMT. There were some excursions below $19k but also some above $19’500 during this period.
18. December 2017 07:38 GMT – There was a flurry of activity between midnight and 02:30 GMT this morning, and the sellers were stronger. The band of activity is now centered at about $18’800 and is wider than before +/- $500 or so.
19.December 2017 13:28 GMT – For the rest of the day yesterday and overnight, the exchange rate stayed reasonably level – running between $18’800 and $19’000 with very little trading. But at about 09:30 GMT this morning, it appears that a large holding was sold on a scheduled program. There was purchasing as well, also with a planned look (programmed reaction?), and these two programs knocked the price down to as low as about $17’400. It has since recovered to about $18k where it appears to be levelling out, but this is only over a 1 hour span so far.
What’s In The Future for 2018?
Where do we go from here? I expect that the price will approach $20k during the next few days, but I also expect some resistance above $20k. I think there will be a lot of sellers who have set $20k – or a little below or above that – as their sell point and will take their profits before the holidays and the end of the year. For 2018, I expect some additional resistance at the beginning of the year with sellers locking in USD profits for the new year. Within a few weeks I predict a resumption of the strong upward trends that we saw in the last quarter of 2017.
29.Nov.2017 03:10 GMT: Hello there – you can guess from the title that Bitcoin broke the $10’000 mark tonight. It was at 02:18 GMT. Time to break out the bubbly?
Actually, aside from that there is not much more to report – catch you later!
29.Nov.2017 14:23 GMT: Hello again! There seems to be a significant pent-up desire for BTC to advance strongly. A little before 14:00 BTC cracked the $11’000 mark on Bitfinex and toppped out at $11’415
29.Nov.2017 20:36 GMT: Profit-takers and others have driven the prce down below $10’000 and it appears to have bottomed out at roughly $9’000 (19:43 GMT). Since then, it has been working back up and is at about $150 below the $10’000 mark. It appears at the present that that, even with some hefty selling pressure, the currency will find its way back over $10’000 in the night.
This has been an exciting weekend! As predicted yesterday Bitcoin Fortune Builder, early this morning (GMT) the Profit-Takers finally stepped in to harvest their profits with the Bitcoin exchange rate hitting as much as $9740 first. By about 10:00 GMT the price was down to the $9400 range but appeared to be stabilizing there. However, this does not preclude further profit-taking during the day. On the other hand, the driving force to push BTC back up still appears to be present.
11:00 GMT – a surprisingly strong effort has put BTC back up at $9750
On a Saturday move, Bitcoin surged out of the week’s bumbling steps (“one step forward and two steps back”) and hit a high of over $8700 ($8733) in the afternoon, before cooling off some. Some other coins also hit new highs in the session.
It can be anticipated that there may be another surge tonight or tomorrow before the profit takers move in and drop the price to some extent – how much is difficult to guess. In any case, it was and is good weather for market traders to get into action and make some money – or lose some! One saving grace is that the anticipated $8200 ceiling from early last week got blown away,
What would you do here? Buy and hope for another surge, or wait for the price to fall and buy at a lower level, anticipating another rise? Or do what probably most people are doing, sitting on our hands and watching where it’s going to go. 😀
Sunday 26. November, 2017 (about 15:00 GMT)
It’s Sunday noonish now and BTC hit $9050.58 about four and a half hours ago (about 07:00 GMT) – it backed down a little but is now moving upwards again close to the $9000-mark.
Question #1: Where will the profit-takers step in?
Question #2: Will BTC top $10’000 (and stay there) before the end of the year?
Apparently the Bitcoin Cash hard fork functioned on 11 November – along with AliExpress’s “singles day” sale. The respective results were a little different. AliExpress by noon in China had already sold more than they sold the whole day last year. The rush for Bitcoin Cash overran the capabilities of at least one market maker, Exodus, and they still have not sorted out all the problems created.
There are stories of Bitcoin inventories being “temporarily” lost and Bitcoin Cash accellerated to unexpected highs while driving Bitcoin down to the levels of two weeks ago or so. At least that is the story being circulated, but already yesterday, Bitcoin was recovering and today is again at the $7200 level; more or less back to where it was before all this mess started.
There are plusses and minuses to be considered here. In a well-functioning market, there would have been fantastic opportunities for traders to make money on the rises and the falls. In the chaos caused by the Exodus failures to perform, it may be weeks before all the movements are clarified, and some people may have made great trades that were lost in confusion.
The lesson here is pretty clear, I think. When something like this is going on, the best situation is to sit on your Bitcoin (or whatever is in play) and wait for the smoke and dust to clear before doing anything else. That was excellent advice before the August hard fork, and it would have been even better advice this week. The exception to that are the traders who thrive on such movements and take potential problems into account in their functioning.