13. February 2018 17:29 GMT – Over the last 36 hours or so, the CC market has been surprisingly calm. Bitcoin was eyeball level at about $8’700 for the first half and dropped slightly to about $8’550 the second half. With the exception of one selling spike and a smaller buying spike in the front end, volume was restrained and reasonably consistent. Bitcoin futures were on parity with the market values at $8515. On a current 24-hour basis, Bitcoin and ethereum were consistent with what we eyeballed, -2.2% for BTC and -2.4% for ETH.
Ripple fell more than 5.3% on the news that ripple and the UAE stock market have agreed upon a joint venture in what is considered a win-win situation. Ripple will gain some stability (and some acceptability) and the UAE market will gain some solidity and more traffic – at least that’s the propaganda. The top ten CC’s performances were mixed, from ripples -5.3% to +5.0% for Stellar. In an earlier development, NEM dropped out of the top ten last week, presumably as a result of the theft two weeks ago. Its place was taken by IOTA which moved up into the top ten. There are only 4 currencies in double $ Billions, Bitcoin ($145B = 35%), Ethereum ($82B = 20%), ripple ($40B = 10%), and Bitcoin Cash ($21B = 5%). The total market cap is $416B shared among 1552 currencies.
There was not much excitement in other areas either – the dollar is down slightly (.5%) against the EUR but stable against the CHF. The Dow Jones was down about 0.3% and the European markets about 0.7%. All in all, not much excitement.
09. February 2018 11:29 GMT – The trend that was identified in the previous report held reasonably true with BTC dropping below $8’000 for the period 00:30 to 08:30 GMT, and then improving to about $8’200 for the period 09:30 GMT to now. There was relatively light traffic during the complete period. Bitcoin is presently at about $8’200. Bitcoin Futures is shadowing the present posting at $8’200.
The top ten crypto-currencies were mixed, running between -4.4% (NEO) and +10.75% (Bitcoin Cash). Bitcoin in percentage was relatively low at -3.75%. In other areas, the German DAX stabilised at about 12’200, down about 0.3% from close yesterday, apparently waiting for the USA exchanges to open before making any strong moves. Fiat currencies are mostly unchanged with movements all less than 0.5%.
Bitcoin Rising On Erratic Trading
10. February 2018 01:50 GMT – The Bitcoin-USD market has been rising more-or-less consistently since the low point at about 05:00 GMT yesterday both during the day and through the night so far. That’s a rise from $7’800 to $8’900 or about 14% through the day. The trading has been erratic with “aces and spaces” the whole period.
The cryptos in general have joined in on the rising market with 24-hour gains between 6.4% (Bitcoin Cash) and 29.6% (ripple) with Bitcoin at 11%. In other areas, the Dow was up about 1.4% after the DAX dropped 1.25% (remember, the Europe exchanges were closed before the Dow took the fall Thursday – the two-day nets are probably quite similar). The fiat currencies are still relatively stable.
Stay tuned and we will see what happens over the weekend?
Bitcoin Still Erratic
10. February 2018 09:44 GMT – Bitcoin continued to rise “softly” overnight GMT until about 07:30 GMT. From that point on, there has been some mild selling pressure and the market has declined about $100. In spite of that, BTC is up about 6% for the 24-hour period ending now. Ethereum is up about the same amount, as most of the top ten rose about 12% (eyeball average!). The big winner was ripple at more than 40% and the only loser was Bitcoin Cash at -2% to -3%.
Ethereum Gaining On Bitcoin In Market Cap
An interesting point is that BTC now only accounts for about $150 Billion market cap with ethereum at $85B (number 3 ripple about 1/2 of ethereum). Will ethereum overtake BTC in market cap? My guess is ultimately “yes” but I think it will take more than a year before that is consistently the case. Is it important? Probably not – my guess is that at that point there will be a large market cap share for the two, and whether they are 1-2 or 2-1 only will be important for the people selling one or the other exclusively. The primary reasons are that BTC has some legacy problems in the time and the cost of transfers that the ethereum system has almost competely eliminated in its system design. On the other hand, there may be changes that we cannot foresee that will modify these results.
CC’s Fall On Selling Spurt
11. February 2018 02:25 GMT – Selling pressure again afflicted Bitcoin and the other CC’s this afternoon and evening GMT, starting at about 14:00 GMT at almost $8’800 and falling to about $8’200 at about 21:00 GMT and then again after a short rise at about 01:00 this morning GMT. It appears that the people who are afraid of their governments’ regulations are still not finished getting rid of their crypto-currencies. The top ten CC’s are down from -7% to -12% with the exception of ripple that is only down a little over -3% for now. What are the odds that the BTC rate will go up again tomorrow morning and then fall again tomorrow evening? Nah, I wouldn’t bet on that!
CC Accounts Stabilising?
12. February 2018 02:55 GMT – The CC’s appear to have stabilised more or less over the past 24 hours with Bitcoin sitting at about $8’250 (plus-or-minus $200). Ethereum is in about the same situation, with each improving about 2.5% over the past 24 hours. The rest of the top ten CC’s improved between 1.2% (IOTA) and 9.1% (NEO). The trading volume is a little erratic, with volume increasing the last two hours or so. Bitcoin Futures pulled up about $250 above the average at $8’500.
In other news, the Euro is up a small amount against the USD, presumably on news that the German government will be a done deal early next week with the Socialists and the Christian Democrats sharing the government.